Baltimore’s Fragile Gains: After Historic Drop in 2025, City Sees Violent Start to 2026

Baltimore, MD — January 20, 2026

Baltimore entered 2026 with cautious optimism. City leaders and community organizers had just celebrated a remarkable milestone: 133 homicides in 2025, the fewest in nearly half a century and a 31 percent decline compared with the year before — the latest in a multi-year downward trend hailed as historic.

But in the first 16 days of January, that progress has already been called into question.

Baltimore recorded seven homicides in the early weeks of 2026 — more than triple the number from the same period last year and a stark contrast to the optimism that closed out 2025.

A Rough Start to the Year

Local police and news reports describe a city grappling with a sudden surge in violence. Shootings have occurred across diverse neighborhoods, from the busy thoroughfares of Northeast Baltimore to residential blocks near Penhurst Avenue and West Cold Spring Lane.

Among the early victims:

• A 55-year-old man shot and killed on the 700 block of North Patterson Park Avenue, one of the first homicides of the year.

• Kenyon Quickley Jr., 22, shot to death in Northeast Baltimore.

• A 59-year-old man, Derek Dangerfield, killed at a home on Penhurst Avenue.

• Other shootings scattered across the city — with victims ranging from their 30s to late 50s — contributing to the early tally.

More homicides are still under investigation, and in several cases police have yet to release details about suspects or motives, leaving families and neighborhoods to grapple with fear and uncertainty.

Demographics and Lack of Clear Patterns

At this early stage, the Baltimore Police Department has not publicly detailed demographic patterns among suspects. But the victims reported so far have been adult men and older adults — a reminder that gun violence in the city affects a wide swath of the population, not just young people or specific districts.

Beyond Homicides: A Broader Crime Surge

The uptick in deadly violence has coincided with broader increases in other offenses. According to city crime data, larcenies, auto thefts, burglary and robberies are all higher in the first weeks of 2026 compared with the same period last year.

Community members interviewed by local outlets express frustration that — despite the promising drop in homicides last year — residents still feel unsafe and that daily life continues to be shaped by unpredictable violence.

Leaders Urge Patience, Action

Baltimore Police Commissioner Richard Worley acknowledged the rough start at a recent Martin Luther King Jr. Day service, noting that the department has weathered difficult patches before. “Our men and women will put it together and we’ll get the cases solved… and we’ll have a successful year,” Worley said, emphasizing experience with prior surges and declines.

Faith-based violence prevention advocates also urged community involvement, echoing calls for “everybody” — not just police — to engage in long-term crime prevention efforts.

Was 2025 A Fluke — or Foundation?

Last year’s historic decrease in homicides was not accidental: city officials credited violence interruption programs, targeted policing strategies, and expanded social services for part of the downturn.

Yet the sudden spike in early 2026 highlights the fragility of those gains. Crime is not a static backdrop but a shifting landscape shaped by economic conditions, enforcement practices, social networks, and community trust. A cluster of incidents in January — whether related or isolated — can quickly erase the sense of progress built over 12 months.

For Baltimore, the question is no longer just whether the city can replicate 2025’s dramatic declines, but whether the reforms and collaborations that drove that success can adapt to emerging challenges in 2026.

As residents and leaders alike caution, the first few weeks are not a definitive forecast — but they are a stark reminder that the work of reducing violence is ongoing, complex, and far from finished.